Strategists have warned that the conflict in Ukraine could become a war of attrition, with massive losses on both sides and no clear "victor. On May 9 Georgia is celebrating World War II Victory Daycommemorating the surrender of Nazi Germany in 1945. Whether the capture of Mariupol and control of the Donbas region would satisfy Russia, and whether Ukraine is prepared to concede any of its territory (it says it is not), points to an open-ended conflict that could drag on for years. "The renewed effort by Russia to secure Azovstal and complete the capture of Mariupol is likely linked to the upcoming 9 May Victory Day commemorations and Putin's desire to have a symbolic success in Ukraine," the ministry tweeted. Ministry of Defence on Friday noted that Russian forces have continued their assault on the Azovstal steel plant in the city for a second day, despite Russian statements claiming they would only seek to seal it off. The battered coastal city of Mariupol - home to some of the most intense fighting over recent weeks - appears to is a key part of this plan, as its capture would help Russia secure the link between Crimea and the Donbas. This would give it access to ports crucial to its economy, and to its military fleet there on the Black Sea. Its primary purpose is to provide support for those involved in military action, and others impacted by this tragic event directly or not. It's widely believed that Russia is focusing its attacks on the Donbas region in order to fully claim the territory and to enable it to create a land bridge from Russia to Crimea, which it annexed in 2014, on the southern Ukrainian coast. Victory Day 2020 Established in 1982 and based in Melbourne, Australia, Victorian Association of WW2 Veterans from the ex-Soviet Union ( AVWSU) is a not for profit Australian charity. In March, Putin signed a decree ordering 134,500 new conscripts into the army, raising eyebrows that they could destined to fight in Ukraine Putin insisted they would not. The mass mobilization of Russia's population for wartime operations would be a big step for Putin, however, potentially putting him at risk of popular dissent, particularly if thousands of new, young Russian conscripts are sent to fight in the war despite having little training. Given the unpredictable nature of Putin's leadership, Alberque said that "ultimately we have to prepare for the worst." "Or, the alternative is that he declares actual war and a total war mobilization." "One is he just declares victory with what he has and he says: 'Look, I expanded the DPR and LPR ,' and says: 'I connected them to Crimea and the land bridge, and we secured the water supplies for Crimea and now I can declare that it's part of Russia'," Alberque said. Looking ahead to Victory Day, William Alberque, director of strategy, technology and arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said there are "two real big options" for Putin.
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